NFL Week 7; Big spread city


The phrase “Any Given Sunday” was in full effect last week with the Steelers winning as 10-point underdogs, The Jets, Giants and Falcons all overcoming big spreads to win outright as well, one of the reasons we love and hate this league. It’s great fun but it’s terrible from a betting standpoint.

Rhamondre Stevenson ended with a couple of TDs though to get us a win, although that being the one successful pick of the week was a tough one to take.

Week 7 is here and it’s as tough as ever to pick anything from the slate with half of the games involving teams favoured by at least 6 points. Sensibly it should be a look towards underdogs, but I’m struggling to pick any of those I like.

Best Spread

Chargers -4.5 vs. Seahawks.

So I’m not exactly at high confidence in this one, but I do think it’s the best of the bad slate in my eyes. The Chargers are probably without Keenan Allen once more as I think they let him sit out until after their bye week next week, but they have shown that Ekeler and Mike Williams are enough to win them games and they sit as 3rd favourites in the AFC, so they’re still highly thought of while the Seahawks are at 80/1 for the NFC… There’s a big disparity between these teams still.

The Seahawks defense has been pretty terrible for most of the season, and despite locking down the Cardinals fairly well last week will struggle to stop Justin Herbert and this attack.

The Chargers are pretty good against outside receivers so in theory that should make it a tough matchup for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is coming in as officially questionable.

Chargers are the better team, that’s about all there is.

Best Total

Lions vs. Cowboys U49 points

The Lions had been a dead-set over team this year but were stumped by the Patriots before their bye week. It looks like they’ll still be without D’Andre Swift as they face a very good Cowboys defense who should be able to get pressure on Jared Goff at QB for the road team.

The Lions defense has been awful, but with the pressure on the DC you have to think they’ve worked pretty hard over their bye to become more solid, who knows.

The Cowboys welcome back Dak Prescott from his thumb injury which definitely helps their offense, but we don’t know how he’ll look in his first game back behind an offensive line which still isn’t great.

It’s one of the highest totals of the week and I don’t think it deserves to be so I’m taking the under.

Best TD Scorer

Nick Chubb (Browns v Ravens)

Ok, a TD scorer for the week, should be easier, surely? Nick Chubb – 1/1 (PP/Betfair) – Will be my pick for the week, it’s the Sky game so we should all get a good view of the Browns giving Chubb 20+ carries as they look to bounce back from their loss last weekend. That game they only gave Chubb 12 carries as they had to chase the game and it was an abject failure for the team as Jacoby Brissett showed he just can’t do it.

Others in consideration were Jamaal Williams at 13/8 if Swift is out (as expected) but the Cowboys defense is pretty good, Taylor Heinicke at around 5/1 for the Commanders is tempting as he has shown he can run the ball well including 95 yards against the Packers last season.

Best player prop

Derrick Henry o14.5 rec. yards

The Titans are coming off of their bye week to face the Colts for the second time this season knowing that a win will put them in pole position in the worst division in football.

Derrick Henry is obviously the key to the game for the Titans, he’ll get 25+ touches and I think 3 or 4 of them will be in the passing game as they have been getting him more involved there including against the Colts in their first matchup where he finished with 33 yards through the air.

Apologies for the quality of the write-up this week I am struggling to find anything I really like on a tough slate, so take it easy if you’re following along.

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