It’s finally time for some FOOOOOTBAWWWWWLLLLL! In just a few hours we’ll be tuning in to hear Scott Hansen say those words “It’s time for 7 hours of commercial-free action” and I can’t wait.
I’m back for my third season at Mr Fix It tips and looking forward to a productive year. Hopefully.
Same structure as last season, my best spread, total and player props and anything else that crosses my mind as I’m writing. – The first week of the season is tough for spread lines as they’ve been available for months so are sharper than at any other team during the season, but there’s still been some late movement with the Eagles hitting 5.5 after being 4 point faves for weeks now.
The Bills opened the season as Super Bowl favourites and showed straight away that they deserve it after dismantling the Rams in their own house on Thursday night. I think it was half and half the Bills being good and the Rams offensive line being terrible and ruining any potential game plan, it was definitely more a worry on their front for me than confirming the ability of the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Chicago Bears
A few lines in consideration for me here, I liked the Eagles -4, but that’s jumped higher so I’m staying away from that, the Dolphins should win but I won’t be a rookie coach against Belichick, the Saints should cover 5.5 in Atlanta. But I’m taking a team against the Bears who I think could be the worst team in the league this season.
It’s the start of the Trey Lance era in San Fran and while he hasn’t exactly been convincing in what little we’ve seen of him on an NFL field he has the upside to take this team further than Jimmy G has done. His mobility makes them more exciting already and he’s got a bigger arm so expect to see more deep shots than we did under Garoppolo. Training camp seemed to show that he and Brandon Aiyuk had a good connection while Deebo Samuel can do it all from anywhere. George Kittle is going to miss out but that shouldn’t hurt them too much.
The Bears seem like they’re aiming for the 1 pick last year after losing talent across the roster. Justin Fields could be something but I doubt it will be this year with only really Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet to throw the ball to, and behind a terrible looking offensive line. The defense has been weakened to, it won’t be pretty in Chi-town this year.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers o52.5
It’s one of the highest totals on the board but there should be a ton of points at the SoFi in what is meant to be a home game for the Chargers but seems likely to have more Raiders fans there than home supporters.
The AFC West is the division from hell this year with all 4 teams in with a good chance of making the playoffs, the Raiders brought in probably the best WR in the league with Davante Adams rejoining his college QB. He probably won’t be targeted as much as he was in GB, but he should lead the team in that aspect. He’s got Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow alongside while Josh Jacobs is a decent enough running back to move the ball on the ground. They have a new HC and went 4-0 in pre-season as he put the effort in to get his team ready for the season.
The Chargers are arguably too long in pricing for the Super Bowl, but do tend to be the off-season darlings every year, and then Charger it up and fail. The offense should be clicking, Ekeler scored a rushing and receiving TD in each game against this opponent last year while Allen and Williams are one of the better pairings in the league and with Justin Herbert behind a very good OL they should put up 30 in every game this year really. They are strong defensively but it’s the Chargers, they’ll still concede points.
Best TD Scorer;
I could, and probably should just go for the 8/11 available on Austin Ekeler, I’m fairly convinced he finds the end-zone this week, but I’ll go for the slightly higher odds of AJ Dillon at 7/4 (Bet365) for the Packers. It’s a new look offense up there without Adams, and this week especially I think they’ll be concentrating on the run game as Allen Lazard is out injured, as well as their two best tackles on the offensive line. It may well be short passes to Aaron Jones, but goal-line work must surely go to the man with tree trunks for legs and there’s 15 or so red zone TDs up for grabs after Adams’ moved on.
Best Player prop;
Player props are blowing up now with legalisation happening across the states there’s more than ever available. Aaron Jones was on my radar for receptions, but 4/6 or similar for o4.5 is a little rich for my blood. This one is incredibly left-field and might make me look like a total idiot, but I’m believing that the Jets aren’t going to use Breece Hall for every single snap and will give Michael Carter some action at running back in a game they’re more than likely to be trailing. He’s got a very low receiving line for the opener, so I’m taking Michael Carter o12.5 rec. yards at 10/11.