Friday Football Tips: Defences On Top in Milan?

Tonight’s clash between Italy and England might look fairly meaningless given top spot in Group A3 is out of reach for the Three Lions (and almost for the Italians) but there’s a whole load riding on the battle to avoid finishing bottom of the table.

Firstly, defeat for England would guarantee relegation from the top tier of the competition. A blow to the ego as well as the bank balance for The FA.

But potentially more important is the fact that it could have a significant impact on their Euro 2024 qualification. Teams will be seeded for the draw (October 9th) based on the UEFA Nations League overall rankings and right now that means England are in pot two, therefore could be drawn alongside the likes of Belgium, Spain, Netherlands or possibly Italy once more.

So with that in mind Gareth Southgate shouldn’t be contemplating anything other an away win in Milan.

It’s been an abysmal campaign for Southgate’s men who are winless in four (D2 L2) and will be licking their wounds following that 4-0 mauling at home to Hungary last time out.

His side have been misfiring of late though and have only managed one goal, a late penalty against Germany. It could be another long night for Harry Kane and Co. and off the back off a 0-0 draw when the sides met in June a repeat pays 7-1 whilst under 1.5 goals is 7/4. An alternative option is to back a goalless first half at 6/4.

The battle for top spot in the group could be decided in Leipzig if Hungary can beat Germany and England get something in Milan. The Mighty Magyars have had an excellent campaign so far but it could all be in vain if they lose tonight.

Germany are just a point behind and are 1/4 to win all three this evening. They were held to a 1-1 draw in Hungary back in June but looked back to their best when they raced in to a 5-0 lead over Italy three days later (finished 5-2). It feels almost inevitable that Germany will get the job done but you’d need to be backing them to score three or more to get close to even money.

Going forward they’ve plenty of dangermen including the evergreen Thomas  Muller who is 6/4 to add to his tally of 44 international goals. But guys like Werner (1/1), Sane (1/1) and Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Jonas Hofmann (7/2), who has scored five in eight this season, are all valid anytime goalscorer options.

Elsewhere, Gibraltar look a bit out of their depth in the third tier. They earned a 1-1 draw with tonight’s opponents, Bulgaria, earlier in the campaign but have lost both their away matches by four goals to nil. Goals are hard to come by for the smaller nations, especially away from home. Combining Over 2.5 Bulgaria goals with Under 0.5 Gibraltar goals pays 13/10 on a Bet365 BetBuilder.

Super Singles

  • Italy v England – No first half goals 6/4 Bet365
  • Jonas Hofmann (if he starts) to score anytime 7/2 Bet365
  • Over 2.5 Bulgaria goals & Under 0.5 Gibraltar goals 13/10 Bet365

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